PenInfo Desk: Despite the commitments made at COP28 in Dubai in 2023 – including the call on parties to triple renewable power capacity and double the rate of energy efficiency improvement by 2030 – and new initiatives from both the G20 and G7, the energy transition remains off track. Fossil fuels continue to dominate the energy mix in major economies, and each year the chances of meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement become increasingly remote.
The success achieved this decade in reducing greenhouse gas emissions will determine whether global temperature rise can be limited to 1.5°C of pre-industrial levels this century. IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario, set out in the World Energy Transitions Outlook,, presents a pathway to achieve the 1.5°C target by 2050, positioning electrification and efficiency as key transition drivers, enabled by renewable energy, clean hydrogen and sustainable biomass.
The 2024 Outlook provides an overview of progress by tracking implementation and gaps across all energy sectors, and identifies priority areas and actions based on available technologies that must be realized by 2030 to achieve net zero emissions by mid-century.
However, a significant gap remains between political announcements and actual county plans and policies. National plans and targets are set to deliver only half of the required growth in renewable power by 2030. Investments in renewable power, grids and flexibility, energy efficiency and conservation must increase dramatically to meet the renewable energy and efficiency goals, totalling USD 31.5 trillion from 2024-2030.
There are also large geographical disparities in terms of renewable additions and investments, causing inequalities in the global energy transition. While renewable investment has generally been on the rise, it remains concentrated in a few countries, leaving much of the Global South behind.
Moreover, with over 70% energy supply, fossil fuels continue to dominate the energy mix in several of the biggest economies, the world’s largest CO2 emitters. To meet the 1.5°C target, the G20 must triple its installed renewable power capacity by 2030, reaching 9,400 gigawatts (GW), and expand it seven-fold by 2050 to 24,900 GW, compared to 2023 levels.
Francesco La Camera, the Director-General of IRENA said: “We have reached crunch time. A robust global finance deal and the next NDCs in 2025 are ‘make or break’ moments to keep 1.5°C alive. NDCs 3.0 provide the last opportunity this decade for countries to step up their stated ambitions. Particularly, an agreement on a new quantified goal for climate finance at COP29 is critical to ensure a just transition, support investments in the Global South and empower countries to step up their NDC ambitions. 1.5°C hinges on efforts by G20 countries. Their NDCs must match global commitments to triple renewable power capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030.”
Globally, the expansion of renewable electricity will facilitate the transition away from fossil fuels in the power sector. Fossil fuels will significantly shrink from a dominant share of 61% in the global power generation mix today, to 24% by 2030 and further to 4% by 2050.
As countries prepare for the third round of NDCs in 2025, it is crucial that they better align with national energy plans and net-zero targets. IRENA is already working with 101 Parties of the Paris Agreement on the upgrade and implementation of NDCs. Coherent national energy and climate strategies facilitate transparency, attract investment, and accelerate the transition to a low-carbon, resilient economy.
International collaboration can secure the significant increase in finance needed for a just transition that maximises socio-economic benefits. This could be facilitated by new sources of funding such as the global wealth tax championed by this year’s G20, emphasising equity, social or environmental responsibility.
There is also a need for huge amounts of public finance to de-risk projects in high-risk countries and fund crucial infrastructure. Such funding could in part come from a reduction in fossil fuel subsidies.
Source: IRENA, Edited by: Rishan Nasrullah
Peninfo/desk/14.11.24/01.00am